Ever the masters of threading the weather needle, SpaceX sent a Falcon 9 on its way to orbit and the Hera probe on its way to the Didymos binary asteroid system that was impacted by NASA’s DART probe on September 26, 2022.
Falcon 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral on October 7, 2022 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Today’s flight was the first Falcon 9 to fly since the Crew 9 second-stage anomaly. The flight was licensed by the FAA because the second stage is not planned to reenter Earth’s atmosphere, making the question of public safety moot.
A view of SLC-40 and Falcon 9, only eight minutes apart on October 7, 2024. On the left, the rocket was barely visible from two miles away due to the rain. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Rain threatened to interfere with the planned launch all morning, with steady rains falling and steely gray overcast skies in the Space Coast region. With only twenty-odd minutes to liftoff, a misty drizzle fell in the region of Space Launch Complex 40. Skies lifted just in time, however, allowing SpaceX to once again beat the weather odds on a day where it looked like that was the least likely outcome.
Perhaps Jessica Jensen, Vice President, Customer Operations and Integration of SpaceX put it best when she said on X.com that “SpaceX has a motto to “never give up a day” no matter how many constraints are against us.” They didn’t, and the launch went right on schedule.
Didymos, the destination for the Hera probe, is shown in this graphic from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Credit: JOL / NASA
Liftoff and ascent appeared to be nominal throughout, with Falcon 9 entering the clouds only seconds after launching. Booster B1061 completed its 23rd and final mission successfully, and the second stage of Falcon 9 appeared to be nominal throughout. A little more than one hour and fifteen minutes after launching, SpaceX completed their portion of this mission successfully when the Hera probe was deployed.
NASA and SpaceX have moved the launch of Falcon Heavy and the Europa Clipper mission from October 10 to NET Saturday, October 12th at 12:19 PM due to Hurricane Milton, which is expected to pass over the Space Coast region Wednesday night going into Thursday.
The Monday, October 7, 2024 Hurricane Advisory from the National Hurricane Center has Milton’s eye wall passing just north of the Kennedy Space Center area. Graphic: National Hurrican Center / NOAA
Date: NET October 12, 2024
Organization: SpaceX / NASA
Mission: Europa Clipper
Rocket: Falcon Heavy
Launch Site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center
Launch Window: 04:50 AM – 08:50 AM EDT
Payload: 12:19 PM
Falcon 9 and Hera disappearing into the clouds on October 7, 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
SpaceX and the European Space Agency are planning to launch ESA’s Hera probe from Space Launch Complex 40 on Monday, October 7th. The launch window extends from 10:52 AM – 11:27 AM EDT.
At A Glance:
Date: NET October 7, 2024
Organization: SpaceX / European Space Agency
Mission: Hera
Rocket: Falcon 9
Launch Site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
Launch Window: 10:52 AM – 11:27 AM EDT
Payload: Hera Probe
Booster Landing Site: Expended
A Falcon 9 on the launch mount at Space Launch Complex 40 in August 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Falcon Family Returns To Flight, For This One Flight
The flight will mark the return to flight for Falcon family rockets after the September 28, 2024 launch of Crew 9 from Cape Canaveral, but according to the FAA it is for the Hera After launching NASA’s Crew 9 mission with Cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague aboard Crew Dragon on their mission to the International Space Station, the second stage of Falcon 9 separated from the capsule and was later commanded to fire its engine one last time in order for it to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere.
A specific area in the Pacific Ocean was targeted so as to minimize any risk of surviving debris causing injuries or property damage. The second stage’s final burn was “off-nominal,” according to SpaceX, and the stage re-entered outside of its designated area. SpaceX immediately announced it was “pausing” Falcon 9 flights while it investigated the matter and two days later, the FAA announced that it was requiring a formal investigation into the incident.
Falcon 9 second stage after shutting down on September 28, 2024
Photo: NASA – SpaceX livestream
That investigation put the Monday, October 7 target date for Hera’s launch in doubt, but SpaceX has been given a special exemption for the Hera flight because the second stage will not be re-entering Earth orbit:
Assuming a successful LRR (Launch Readiness Review), Falcon 9 will again soar over Florida skies tomorrow morning.
Payload
According to ESA, “Hera is a planetary defence mission under development at the European Space Agency. Its objectives are to investigate the Didymos binary asteroid, including the very first assessment of its internal properties, and to measure in great detail the outcome of NASA’s DART mission kinetic impactor test. Hera will provide extremely valuable information for future asteroid deflection missions and science; increasing our understanding of asteroid geophysics as well as solar system formation and evolutionary processes.”
SpaceXwill have a live stream of the launch on its website. This will also be available on the X platform. Coverage starts about fifteen minutes before liftoff.
Spaceflight Now will have coverage of the launch starting about one hour before liftoff on Youtube: link
For official updates regarding launch times, SpaceX.com is the best source of information. Starlink launch times change from time to time, and the company generally updates their website within minutes of the decision to change the launch time. This is very handy if none of the streaming options on YouTube have started their broadcasts.
Remember that there is a delay between a launch stream and the actual countdown clock. That is simply because of physics: it takes time for the signal to travel from the launch site, through the Internet, and back down to your phone, resulting in a five to fifteen-second delay.
Next Space Flight an app for iOS and Android phones, has a real-time countdown clock that is accurate to a second, give or take. The app is free. Search the App Store or Google Play. They are also on the web: nextspaceflight.com.
Launch Viewing: In Person
Since the launch is during the morning, a lot of options are available for spectators: Jetty Park, the Banana River Bridge on FL 528 W or the southern Titusville parks on Washington Avenue / US-1 are your best bets.
Cocoa Beach will have great views of the launch once it clears any obstructions from the rising rocket and a viewer’s location.
Playalinda Beach is several miles north of the launch pad, but ignition and of course the flight of the rocket are visible from that location. If you go, go early in case the crowds are heavy.
This flight is one where the booster will be expended after its duty cycle. This is being done in order to get the maximum performance possible out of the launch vehicle. That in mind, there will be no sonic boom in the Space Coast region for a returning booster.
The “Big Vent” event at T-minus twenty minutes for a Falcon 9 rocket is a common sight here on the Space Coast. This is liquid nitrogen being vented out of the propellant fill lines. The clouds are condensation and are harmless. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
“The FAA is aware an anomaly occurred during the SpaceX NASA Crew-9 mission that launched from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida on September 28. The incident involved the Falcon 9 second stage landing outside of the designated hazard area. No public injuries or public property damage have been reported. The FAA is requiring an investigation.”
FAA, September 30, 2024
The FAA did note that no injuries or property damage has been reported, which is their primary concern in this matter.
For their part, SpaceX announced on Sunday that they were pausing Falcon-family launches while they conducted their investigation into the issue with the Crew-9 second stage:
SpaceX via X.com
Effectively, the FAA’s announcement today formalizes a process that SpaceX had already announced and started.
What Happened?
After launching NASA’s Crew 9 mission with Cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague aboard Crew Dragon on their mission to the International Space Station, the second stage of Falcon 9 separated from the capsule and was later commanded to fire its engine one last time in order for it to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere. A specific area in the Pacific Ocean was targeted so as to minimize any risk of surviving debris causing injuries or property damage.
In that post he McDowell said, “Here is the ground track showing the planned reentry area at bottom left. My analysis suggests that an off nominal deorbit that still ends up with stage reentry will impact on the orange line somewhere between the end of the white rectangle and the equator.”
Falcon 9 Second Stage expected track, per Dr. Jonathan McDowell. via X.com
Why Is This Important?
While the Pacific Ocean is obviously a very big place, and relatively speaking, the second stage of a rocket is not, planned re-entries must still come down in their designated zone. Outside of that is considered a hazardous operation because of the non-zero chance of injuries or property damage. In turn, this triggers the need for a formal investigation prior to the FAA issuing a launch license for SpaceX’s next mission.
How Long Is Falcon 9 Grounded?
It depends. If SpaceX can make a case that this issue would not have resulted in increased danger to people or property, they can ask the FAA to make a determination of that as fact and to resume issuing Falcon family launch licenses while SpaceX completes their investigation(s) and subsequent modifications and improvements to Falcon 9’s second stage.
That would imply that this launch pause will also be short, but it is difficult to say that with complete certainty, given that this is the second failure of a Falcon-family second-stage in the past three months.
As always, stay tuned. There’s more to come on this story.
Falcon 9 flying to space on September 29, 2024. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Overnight, SpaceX announced that it had experienced an anomaly with the Falcon 9 second stage used to launch Crew 9 on September 28, and that it was grounding the vehicle while it investigated the issue:
At the time of this writing, the Federal Administration Administration (FAA) has not commented on this matter, or whether it would formally withhold launch licensing from Falcon 9 while SpaceX completed its investigation.
Crew 9 Proceeding As Planned
Roscosmos Cosmonaut Alexsandr Gurbonov, left, and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Notably, this incident occurred after Commander Nick Hague and Mission Specialist Alexsandr Gurbonov had separated from the second stage, and beforehand, the stage had provided a nominal orbital insertion for them aboard Crew Dragon and Crew 9. That mission continues with a planned docking at ISS sometime around 5:30 PM EDT today.
So What Happened?
SpaceX’s announcement was sparse on details, however the problem was explained well by Dr. Jonathon McDowell of the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
McDowell said X.com earlier this morning that the Falcon 9 second stage used yesterday did not deorbit as planned and probably came down east of New Zealand sometime overnight:
So where did the Crew-9 second stage come down? Here is the ground track of Crew-9 based on the TLE (orange) and the planned stage 2 deorbit area (white rectangle) pic.twitter.com/gBFlY2f9dJ
McDowell, who meticulously maintains a list of all launches and other space events, added on X.com, “The most likely failure mode that still results in reentry is a slight underburn (less delta-V, higher resulting perigee). If you underburn too much the perigee will be too high for reentry to occur. So you expect the entry to be further along the orange line but not by too much.”
He added in a successive post, “Here is the ground track showing the planned reentry area at bottom left. My analysis suggests that an off nominal deorbit that still ends up with stage reentry will impact on the orange line somewhere between the end of the white rectangle and the equator.”
The orbital ground track of Falcon 9’s second stage after the Crew 9 launch on September 28, 2024. Graphic: Dr. Jonathan McDowell on X.com
Practical Effects
SpaceX is known to complete its investigations quickly, and if it is not restricted from launching by the FAA, one can expect them to investigate and remediate the problems with the Falcon 9 second stages with alacrity. The chances, however, of the FAA requiring a formal investigation and safety determination seems high if the immediate past is any guideline.
Crew 9 Stage 2 on September 29, 2024 Photo: SpaceX, via NASA Livestream
It’s unknown if yesterday’s issue and the one on July 11th are related in any way, and any conjecture that they are is just guesswork at this point. Short of SpaceX announcing that there is any relationship between the Jully 11 issue and the one this morning on September 29, no one knows one exists. That said, it is a second problem in 2024 with the second stage of the venerable Falcon 9.
The FAA has yet to make any public comments regarding today’s SpaceX announcement, but it would not be surprising if they were to formally require a new public safety determination for the incident SpaceX described this morning.
Practical Effects
SpaceX has multiple launches upcoming on its immediate manifest, including the Europa Clipper on Falcon Heavy, which is planned to fly NET October 10 from LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center. They also have the HERA mission scheduled for NET October 7, a mission for OneWeb NET October 1st and a few Starlink mission interspersed in between. As always, SpaceX is busy.
technicians working to complete operations prior to propellant load for NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2024. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett
Those launch dates are reasonably in question as a result of the Crew 9 issue, as all are within a fifteen-day window of time, if using the July 2024 Falcon 9 second stage issue is any guideline.
None of that is set in stone, however, and this is a very fluid situation on Sunday, September 29th.
SpaceX successfully launched the Crew 9 mission Saturday, November 28, 2024 from Space Launch Complex 40 in the first crewed launch from that storied pad. Liftoff was at 01:17 PM EDT under broken skies and a building threat of storms.
Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
SpaceX successfully launched the Crew 9 mission today from Space Launch Complex 40 in the first crewed launch from that storied pad. Liftoff was at 01:17 PM EDT under broken skies and a building threat of storms.
Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
A little more than eight minutes later, spectators were treated to a second awesome view as Booster B1085 completed its second mission successfully when it touched down a Landing Zone 1, roughly six miles from where it launched. A sonic boom echoed across the Space Coast.
Booster B1085 beginning its landing sequence,
After achieving orbit, Crew Dragon separated from Falcon 9’s second stage and astronauts Aleksandr Gorbunov and “Nick” Hague began performing checkouts of propulsion, life support, and thermal control systems. Later, Dragon will perform “phasing burns” where the spacecraft performs dorbit raising maneuvers to catch up with the International Space Station.
If all proceeds as planned, Hague and Gorbunov will arrive at ISS on Sunday, Sept. 29, with docking planned for 5:30 PM EDT.
Launch Replay
Next Launch
After a lull in a steady stream of Starlink launches, SpaceX will return to building out its orbital ISP NET Wednesday from Cape Canaveral. The launch window opens at 4:50 AM EDT and extends to 8:50 AM the same day.
Date: NET October 2, 2024
Organization: SpaceX
Mission: Starlink 10-10
Rocket: Falcon 9
Launch Site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
Aleksandr Vladimirovich Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague greeted reporters and @NASA personnel yesterday at the old Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC. They launch NET Thursday 2:06 PM EDT. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
NASA has announced that the SpaceX Crew 9 mission would not launch until Saturday due to potential effects from tropical storm Helene.
NASA and SpaceX teams have adjusted the next launch opportunity for NASA’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission to no earlier than 1:17 p.m. EDT, Saturday, Sept. 28, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida due to expected tropical storm conditions in the area. The change allows teams to complete a rehearsal of launch day activities Tuesday night with the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket, which rolled to Space Launch Complex-40 earlier in the day. Following rehearsal activities, the integrated system will move back to the hangar ahead of any potential storm activity.
Although Tropical Storm Helene is moving through the Gulf of Mexico and expected to impact the Florida panhandle, the storm system is large enough that high winds and heavy rain are expected in the Cape Canaveral and Merritt Island regions on Florida’s east coast.
NASA’s reasoning is sound, according to the official forecast for Helene today, on September 24th:
Current Forecasts
The Tuesday September 24th PM forecast for Helene. Source: TROPICAL STORM HELENE, Retrieved 09/24/2024. Note: refer to official sources (NOAA, NHC, etc. for the current forecast!
The Space Coast is currently under a Tropical Storm watch, and effects from Helene are expected before and during the Thursday launch window. That’s not good for pre-launch preparations and not very likely to result in a clean range weather-wise Thursday afternoon.
NASA has identified Saturday at 1:17 p.m. EDT in an instantaneous window as the next possible launch date for Crew 9. The current National Weather Service forecast for Cape Canaveral calls for “a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”
The 45th Weather Squadron will issue its official Probability of Violation forecast later this week if the September 28th attempt remains on schedule.
Stay tuned.
SpaceX’s Crew 9 logo. NASA uses a different one. Graphic: SpaceX
You must be logged in to post a comment.