Falcon 9

NASA’s Commercial Crew office released its high-level plan for 2025 today. It has few surprises, with two SpaceX Commercial Crew missions, and offers the slightest of updates for Boeing’s Starliner program and holds out the possibility of a Starliner flight next year.

SpaceX Commercial Crew Flights in 2025

Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Crew-10
NASA’s SpaceX Crew-10 mission is scheduled for February 2025.

NASA Astronaut Anne McClain will be the mission commander, NASA Astronaut Nichole Ayers will be the pilot mission specialists JAXA astronaut Takuya Onishi and Roscosmos cosmonaut Kirill Peskov will be the mission specialists. This mission will be the second spaceflight for McClain and Onishi, and the first for Ayers and Peskov.

Crew-11
NASA’s SpaceX Crew-11 is targeted for no earlier than July of next year, but that may be adjusted because of operational needs — resupply missions on docking ports, etc. NASA will announce the four-person crew at a later date.

There is speculation that the two members of Crew-9 who were taken off the flight to accommodate Boeing Starliner Crewed Flight Test astronauts will be assigned to this flight, but at this point in time, that is just rumor and has no basis in official facts released by the agency.

Stephanie Wilson and Zena Cardman were deep into the training cycle for the Crew-9, which presumably gives them a headstart. Still, ultimately, Chief of the Astronaut Office Joe Acaba and other NASA officials will make the call. When that information will be released to the public is unknown.

Boeing Starliner

Starliner CST-100 in launch preparation, May 31, 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Here is where today’s release gets really interesting: NASA says that, “The timing and configuration of Starliner’s next flight will be determined once a better understanding of Boeing’s path to system certification is established. This determination will include considerations for incorporating Crew Flight Test lessons learned, approvals of final certification products, and operational readiness.”

“Meanwhile, NASA is keeping options on the table for how best to achieve system certification, including windows of opportunity for a potential Starliner flight in 2025.”

To fly in 2025, Boeing and its contractors will need to fix the issues that dogged the Crewed Flight Test this year, namely overheating thrusters, helium leaks, and potentially degraded seals (this was seen in ground testing during the investigations of Starliner CFT).

To do that, Boeing and NASA engineers must finalize their data analyses if they still need to do so. From there, Boeing and its subcontractors can begin designing and fabricating any hardware changes and qualifying those for human spaceflight. Externally, Boeing seems optimistic that they can do those things in 2025. Whether that happens remains to be seen, given that aerospace projects are often delayed.

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Falcon 9 launching on July 8, 2024 from Cape Canaveral
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusvill

The Federal Aviation Administration, the agency responsible for commercial spaceflight, has announced that SpaceX may resume regular launches of Falcon 9.

The FAA notified SpaceX on Oct. 11 that the Falcon 9 vehicle is authorized to return to regular flight operations. The FAA reviewed and accepted the SpaceX-led investigation findings and corrective actions for the mishap that occurred with the Crew-9 mission (Sept. 28).

Also on Oct. 11, FAA closed the SpaceX-led investigations for the Falcon 9 mishaps that occurred with the Starlink 9-3 (July 11) and Starlink 8-6 (Aug. 28) missions.

The FAA, October 11, 2024

Why Falcon 9 Was Grounded By The FAA

After launching NASA’s Crew 9 mission with Cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague aboard Crew Dragon on their mission to the International Space Station on September 28, 2024, the second stage of Falcon 9 separated from the capsule and was later commanded to fire its engine one last time in order for it to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere. A specific area in the Pacific Ocean was targeted so as to minimize any risk of surviving debris causing injuries or property damage.

FAA Headquarters
Photo: The FAA

Due to what SpaceX labeled as an “off-nominal de-orbit burn” the second stage used for the Crew 9 flight missed its landing area, resulting in SpaceX announcing nearly immediately that it had experienced an anomaly and that it was grounding the vehicle while it investigated the issue. On September 29, the FAA announced that was requiring an investigation and that until complete, the federal agency would not issue the vehicle any new launch licenses. In effect, this “grounded” Falcon 9.

The FAA did grant SpaceX a license for the ESA Hera launch on October 7, saying that there was no risk to public safety because the mission did not dispose of its second stage by deorbiting it in Earth’s atmosphere.

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Ever the masters of threading the weather needle, SpaceX sent a Falcon 9 on its way to orbit and the Hera probe on its way to the Didymos binary asteroid system that was impacted by NASA’s DART probe on September 26, 2022.

Falcon 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral on October 7, 2022
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Today’s flight was the first Falcon 9 to fly since the Crew 9 second-stage anomaly. The flight was licensed by the FAA because the second stage is not planned to reenter Earth’s atmosphere, making the question of public safety moot.

A view of SLC-40 and Falcon 9, only eight minutes apart on October 7, 2024. On the left, the rocket was barely visible from two miles away due to the rain.
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Rain threatened to interfere with the planned launch all morning, with steady rains falling and steely gray overcast skies in the Space Coast region. With only twenty-odd minutes to liftoff, a misty drizzle fell in the region of Space Launch Complex 40. Skies lifted just in time, however, allowing SpaceX to once again beat the weather odds on a day where it looked like that was the least likely outcome.

Perhaps Jessica Jensen, Vice President, Customer Operations and Integration of SpaceX put it best when she said on X.com that “SpaceX has a motto to “never give up a day” no matter how many constraints are against us.” They didn’t, and the launch went right on schedule.

Didymos, the destination for the Hera probe, is shown in this graphic from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Credit: JOL / NASA

Liftoff and ascent appeared to be nominal throughout, with Falcon 9 entering the clouds only seconds after launching. Booster B1061 completed its 23rd and final mission successfully, and the second stage of Falcon 9 appeared to be nominal throughout. A little more than one hour and fifteen minutes after launching, SpaceX completed their portion of this mission successfully when the Hera probe was deployed.

Launch Replay

Next Launch

NASA and SpaceX have moved the launch of Falcon Heavy and the Europa Clipper mission from October 10 to NET Saturday, October 12th at 12:19 PM due to Hurricane Milton, which is expected to pass over the Space Coast region Wednesday night going into Thursday.

The Monday, October 7, 2024 Hurricane Advisory from the National Hurricane Center has Milton’s eye wall passing just north of the Kennedy Space Center area.
Graphic: National Hurrican Center / NOAA
  • Date: NET October 12, 2024
  • Organization: SpaceX / NASA
  • Mission: Europa Clipper
  • Rocket: Falcon Heavy
  • Launch Site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center
  • Launch Window: 04:50 AM – 08:50 AM EDT
  • Payload: 12:19 PM
Falcon 9 and Hera disappearing into the clouds on October 7, 2024
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
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SpaceX and the European Space Agency are planning to launch ESA’s Hera probe from Space Launch Complex 40 on Monday, October 7th. The launch window extends from 10:52 AM – 11:27 AM EDT.

At A Glance:

  • Date: NET October 7, 2024
  • Organization: SpaceX / European Space Agency
  • Mission: Hera
  • Rocket: Falcon 9
  • Launch Site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
  • Launch Window: 10:52 AM – 11:27 AM EDT
  • Payload: Hera Probe
  • Booster Landing Site: Expended
A Falcon 9 on the launch mount at Space Launch Complex 40 in August 2024
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Falcon Family Returns To Flight, For This One Flight

The flight will mark the return to flight for Falcon family rockets after the September 28, 2024 launch of Crew 9 from Cape Canaveral, but according to the FAA it is for the Hera After launching NASA’s Crew 9 mission with Cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague aboard Crew Dragon on their mission to the International Space Station, the second stage of Falcon 9 separated from the capsule and was later commanded to fire its engine one last time in order for it to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere.

A specific area in the Pacific Ocean was targeted so as to minimize any risk of surviving debris causing injuries or property damage. The second stage’s final burn was “off-nominal,” according to SpaceX, and the stage re-entered outside of its designated area. SpaceX immediately announced it was “pausing” Falcon 9 flights while it investigated the matter and two days later, the FAA announced that it was requiring a formal investigation into the incident.

Falcon 9 second stage after shutting down on September 28, 2024 Photo: NASA – SpaceX livestream
Falcon 9 second stage after shutting down on September 28, 2024 Photo: NASA – SpaceX livestream

That investigation put the Monday, October 7 target date for Hera’s launch in doubt, but SpaceX has been given a special exemption for the Hera flight because the second stage will not be re-entering Earth orbit:

Assuming a successful LRR (Launch Readiness Review), Falcon 9 will again soar over Florida skies tomorrow morning.

Payload

According to ESA, “Hera is a planetary defence mission under development at the European Space Agency. Its objectives are to investigate the Didymos binary asteroid, including the very first assessment of its internal properties, and to measure in great detail the outcome of NASA’s DART mission kinetic impactor test. Hera will provide extremely valuable information for future asteroid deflection missions and science; increasing our understanding of asteroid geophysics as well as solar system formation and evolutionary processes.”

ESA: Hera Mission page

ESA released this infographic showing the basic timeline of the Hera mission.

Weather

The L-1 Forecast from the 45th Weather Squadron of the Launch Delta 45 command of the US Space Force is not optimistic for a the next three days:

And after that, things will only get worse as a tropical system approaches the area midweek.

Via National Hurricane Center, retrieved October 6, 11:45 AM EDT

We will update this article with the official POV forecasts from the 45th Weather Squadron are updated.

Trajectory

Eastward towards an equatorial orbit.

Online Viewing

SpaceCoastLaunchCalendar.com will have a livestream of the launch if you’re not able to watch the launch in person: Livestream

SpaceX will have a live stream of the launch on its website. This will also be available on the X platform. Coverage starts about fifteen minutes before liftoff.

Spaceflight Now will have coverage of the launch starting about one hour before liftoff on Youtube: link

For official updates regarding launch times, SpaceX.com is the best source of information. Starlink launch times change from time to time, and the company generally updates their website within minutes of the decision to change the launch time. This is very handy if none of the streaming options on YouTube have started their broadcasts.

Remember that there is a delay between a launch stream and the actual countdown clock. That is simply because of physics: it takes time for the signal to travel from the launch site, through the Internet, and back down to your phone, resulting in a five to fifteen-second delay.

Next Space Flight an app for iOS and Android phones, has a real-time countdown clock that is accurate to a second, give or take. The app is free. Search the App Store or Google Play. They are also on the web: nextspaceflight.com.

Launch Viewing: In Person

Since the launch is during the morning, a lot of options are available for spectators: Jetty Park, the Banana River Bridge on FL 528 W or the southern Titusville parks on Washington Avenue / US-1 are your best bets.

Cocoa Beach will have great views of the launch once it clears any obstructions from the rising rocket and a viewer’s location.

Playalinda Beach is several miles north of the launch pad, but ignition and of course the flight of the rocket are visible from that location. If you go, go early in case the crowds are heavy.

This flight is one where the booster will be expended after its duty cycle. This is being done in order to get the maximum performance possible out of the launch vehicle. That in mind, there will be no sonic boom in the Space Coast region for a returning booster.

The “Big Vent” event at T-minus twenty minutes for a Falcon 9 rocket is a common sight here on the Space Coast. This is liquid nitrogen being vented out of the propellant fill lines. The clouds are condensation and are harmless.
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
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Falcon 9 second stage after shutting down on September 28, 2024 Photo: NASA – SpaceX livestream
Falcon 9 second stage after shutting down on September 28, 2024
Photo: NASA – SpaceX livestream

The FAA released a brief statement recognizing that the second stage of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 used for the Crew 9 launch landed outside of its designated landing zone, and that they are requiring an investigation:

“The FAA is aware an anomaly occurred during the SpaceX NASA Crew-9 mission that launched from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida on September 28. The incident involved the Falcon 9 second stage landing outside of the designated hazard area. No public injuries or public property damage have been reported. The FAA is requiring an investigation.”

FAA, September 30, 2024

The FAA did note that no injuries or property damage has been reported, which is their primary concern in this matter.

For their part, SpaceX announced on Sunday that they were pausing Falcon-family launches while they conducted their investigation into the issue with the Crew-9 second stage:

SpaceX via X.com

Effectively, the FAA’s announcement today formalizes a process that SpaceX had already announced and started.

What Happened?

After launching NASA’s Crew 9 mission with Cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague aboard Crew Dragon on their mission to the International Space Station, the second stage of Falcon 9 separated from the capsule and was later commanded to fire its engine one last time in order for it to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere. A specific area in the Pacific Ocean was targeted so as to minimize any risk of surviving debris causing injuries or property damage.

More From Talk of Titusville:
Crew 9 Launches To ISS
SpaceX Pausing Falcon Family Launches While It Investigates Second Stage Anomaly

According to SpaceX on Sunday, that burn was “off-nominal,” which caused the second stage to land outside of the designated area.

While the official information released by SpaceX thus far has been relatively non-specific, Dr. Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics posted a graphic on X.com on Sunday morning showing his estimation of the ground track of S2 on its final orbit along with area in which the stage probably came down.

In that post he McDowell said, “Here is the ground track showing the planned reentry area at bottom left. My analysis suggests that an off nominal deorbit that still ends up with stage reentry will impact on the orange line somewhere between the end of the white rectangle and the equator.”

Falcon 9 Second Stage expected track, per Dr. Jonathan McDowell.
via X.com

Why Is This Important?

While the Pacific Ocean is obviously a very big place, and relatively speaking, the second stage of a rocket is not, planned re-entries must still come down in their designated zone. Outside of that is considered a hazardous operation because of the non-zero chance of injuries or property damage. In turn, this triggers the need for a formal investigation prior to the FAA issuing a launch license for SpaceX’s next mission.

How Long Is Falcon 9 Grounded?

It depends. If SpaceX can make a case that this issue would not have resulted in increased danger to people or property, they can ask the FAA to make a determination of that as fact and to resume issuing Falcon family launch licenses while SpaceX completes their investigation(s) and subsequent modifications and improvements to Falcon 9’s second stage.

In July of this year, that’s exactly what happened: fourteen days after Starlink 9-3 had a second-stage anomaly, the FAA issued a determination that no public safety issues were the result of that particular incident.

Crew 9 lifts off on September 27, 2024.
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Later, in August, the same sort of determination was released by the FAA only three days after a landing failure of the booster used for Starlink 8-6.

That would imply that this launch pause will also be short, but it is difficult to say that with complete certainty, given that this is the second failure of a Falcon-family second-stage in the past three months.

As always, stay tuned. There’s more to come on this story.

See also: FAA Rules For Launch Mishaps

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Falcon 9 flying to space on September 29, 2024.
Falcon 9 flying to space on September 29, 2024.
Falcon 9 flying to space on September 29, 2024. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Overnight, SpaceX announced that it had experienced an anomaly with the Falcon 9 second stage used to launch Crew 9 on September 28, and that it was grounding the vehicle while it investigated the issue:

At the time of this writing, the Federal Administration Administration (FAA) has not commented on this matter, or whether it would formally withhold launch licensing from Falcon 9 while SpaceX completed its investigation.

Crew 9 Proceeding As Planned

Roscosmos Cosmonaut Alexsandr Gurbonov, left, and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague.
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Notably, this incident occurred after Commander Nick Hague and Mission Specialist Alexsandr Gurbonov had separated from the second stage, and beforehand, the stage had provided a nominal orbital insertion for them aboard Crew Dragon and Crew 9. That mission continues with a planned docking at ISS sometime around 5:30 PM EDT today.

So What Happened?

SpaceX’s announcement was sparse on details, however the problem was explained well by Dr. Jonathon McDowell of the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

McDowell said X.com earlier this morning that the Falcon 9 second stage used yesterday did not deorbit as planned and probably came down east of New Zealand sometime overnight:

McDowell, who meticulously maintains a list of all launches and other space events, added on X.com, “The most likely failure mode that still results in reentry is a slight underburn (less delta-V, higher resulting perigee). If you underburn too much the perigee will be too high for reentry to occur. So you expect the entry to be further along the orange line but not by too much.”

He added in a successive post, “Here is the ground track showing the planned reentry area at bottom left. My analysis suggests that an off nominal deorbit that still ends up with stage reentry will impact on the orange line somewhere between the end of the white rectangle and the equator.”

The orbital ground track of Falcon 9’s second stage after the Crew 9 launch on September 28, 2024.
Graphic: Dr. Jonathan McDowell on X.com

Practical Effects

SpaceX is known to complete its investigations quickly, and if it is not restricted from launching by the FAA, one can expect them to investigate and remediate the problems with the Falcon 9 second stages with alacrity. The chances, however, of the FAA requiring a formal investigation and safety determination seems high if the immediate past is any guideline.

Crew 9 Stage 2 on September 29, 2024
Photo: SpaceX, via NASA Livestream

It is notable that this is the second major incident this year for a Falcon 9 second stage, with the first being on July 11th when a Starlink launch went awry due to a Merlin Vacuum engine failure. The FAA required SpaceX to make a public safety determination prior to returning to flight, a process that took fifteen days.

SpaceX also had a first stage landing failure in August, which resulted in the FAA requiring SpaceX to make a second public safety determination prior to launching again Falcon 9. That took only three days.

It’s unknown if yesterday’s issue and the one on July 11th are related in any way, and any conjecture that they are is just guesswork at this point. Short of SpaceX announcing that there is any relationship between the Jully 11 issue and the one this morning on September 29, no one knows one exists. That said, it is a second problem in 2024 with the second stage of the venerable Falcon 9.

The FAA has yet to make any public comments regarding today’s SpaceX announcement, but it would not be surprising if they were to formally require a new public safety determination for the incident SpaceX described this morning.

Practical Effects

SpaceX has multiple launches upcoming on its immediate manifest, including the Europa Clipper on Falcon Heavy, which is planned to fly NET October 10 from LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center. They also have the HERA mission scheduled for NET October 7, a mission for OneWeb NET October 1st and a few Starlink mission interspersed in between. As always, SpaceX is busy.

 technicians working to complete operations prior to propellant load for NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2024. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett
 technicians working to complete operations prior to propellant load for NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2024. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Those launch dates are reasonably in question as a result of the Crew 9 issue, as all are within a fifteen-day window of time, if using the July 2024 Falcon 9 second stage issue is any guideline.

None of that is set in stone, however, and this is a very fluid situation on Sunday, September 29th.

Stay tuned.

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Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

SpaceX successfully launched the Crew 9 mission today from Space Launch Complex 40 in the first crewed launch from that storied pad. Liftoff was at 01:17 PM EDT under broken skies and a building threat of storms.

Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

A little more than eight minutes later, spectators were treated to a second awesome view as Booster B1085 completed its second mission successfully when it touched down a Landing Zone 1, roughly six miles from where it launched. A sonic boom echoed across the Space Coast.

Booster B1085 beginning its landing sequence,

After achieving orbit, Crew Dragon separated from Falcon 9’s second stage and astronauts Aleksandr Gorbunov and “Nick” Hague began performing checkouts of propulsion, life support, and thermal control systems. Later, Dragon will perform “phasing burns” where the spacecraft performs dorbit raising maneuvers to catch up with the International Space Station.

If all proceeds as planned, Hague and Gorbunov will arrive at ISS on Sunday, Sept. 29, with docking planned for 5:30 PM EDT.

Launch Replay

Next Launch

After a lull in a steady stream of Starlink launches, SpaceX will return to building out its orbital ISP NET Wednesday from Cape Canaveral. The launch window opens at 4:50 AM EDT and extends to 8:50 AM the same day.

  • Date: NET October 2, 2024
  • Organization: SpaceX
  • Mission: Starlink 10-10
  • Rocket: Falcon 9
  • Launch Site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
  • Launch Window: 04:50 AM – 08:50 AM EDT
  • Payload: Starlink satellites
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