September 2024

Falcon 9 second stage after shutting down on September 28, 2024 Photo: NASA – SpaceX livestream
Falcon 9 second stage after shutting down on September 28, 2024
Photo: NASA – SpaceX livestream

The FAA released a brief statement recognizing that the second stage of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 used for the Crew 9 launch landed outside of its designated landing zone, and that they are requiring an investigation:

“The FAA is aware an anomaly occurred during the SpaceX NASA Crew-9 mission that launched from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida on September 28. The incident involved the Falcon 9 second stage landing outside of the designated hazard area. No public injuries or public property damage have been reported. The FAA is requiring an investigation.”

FAA, September 30, 2024

The FAA did note that no injuries or property damage has been reported, which is their primary concern in this matter.

For their part, SpaceX announced on Sunday that they were pausing Falcon-family launches while they conducted their investigation into the issue with the Crew-9 second stage:

SpaceX via X.com

Effectively, the FAA’s announcement today formalizes a process that SpaceX had already announced and started.

What Happened?

After launching NASA’s Crew 9 mission with Cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague aboard Crew Dragon on their mission to the International Space Station, the second stage of Falcon 9 separated from the capsule and was later commanded to fire its engine one last time in order for it to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere. A specific area in the Pacific Ocean was targeted so as to minimize any risk of surviving debris causing injuries or property damage.

More From Talk of Titusville:
Crew 9 Launches To ISS
SpaceX Pausing Falcon Family Launches While It Investigates Second Stage Anomaly

According to SpaceX on Sunday, that burn was “off-nominal,” which caused the second stage to land outside of the designated area.

While the official information released by SpaceX thus far has been relatively non-specific, Dr. Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics posted a graphic on X.com on Sunday morning showing his estimation of the ground track of S2 on its final orbit along with area in which the stage probably came down.

In that post he McDowell said, “Here is the ground track showing the planned reentry area at bottom left. My analysis suggests that an off nominal deorbit that still ends up with stage reentry will impact on the orange line somewhere between the end of the white rectangle and the equator.”

Falcon 9 Second Stage expected track, per Dr. Jonathan McDowell.
via X.com

Why Is This Important?

While the Pacific Ocean is obviously a very big place, and relatively speaking, the second stage of a rocket is not, planned re-entries must still come down in their designated zone. Outside of that is considered a hazardous operation because of the non-zero chance of injuries or property damage. In turn, this triggers the need for a formal investigation prior to the FAA issuing a launch license for SpaceX’s next mission.

How Long Is Falcon 9 Grounded?

It depends. If SpaceX can make a case that this issue would not have resulted in increased danger to people or property, they can ask the FAA to make a determination of that as fact and to resume issuing Falcon family launch licenses while SpaceX completes their investigation(s) and subsequent modifications and improvements to Falcon 9’s second stage.

In July of this year, that’s exactly what happened: fourteen days after Starlink 9-3 had a second-stage anomaly, the FAA issued a determination that no public safety issues were the result of that particular incident.

Crew 9 lifts off on September 27, 2024.
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Later, in August, the same sort of determination was released by the FAA only three days after a landing failure of the booster used for Starlink 8-6.

That would imply that this launch pause will also be short, but it is difficult to say that with complete certainty, given that this is the second failure of a Falcon-family second-stage in the past three months.

As always, stay tuned. There’s more to come on this story.

See also: FAA Rules For Launch Mishaps

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United Launch Alliance's CERT-2 rocket on its way to the launch mount at Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral on September 30, 2024.
Photo: United Launch Alliance
United Launch Alliance’s CERT-2 rocket on its way to the launch mount at Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral on September 30, 2024.
Photo: United Launch Alliance

United Launch Alliance has moved its second Vulcan Rocket from their Vertical Integration Facility at Space Launch Complex 41 to the launch mount. Final preparations can now begin for a launch scheduled for NET (not earlier than) Friday morning. Launch time is unofficially expected to be between 06:00 AM – 009:00 AM EDT, but ULA has not yet announced an official time for T-0.

Test Mission

This mission, dubbed “CERT-2” will not carry a customer payload. Originally slated to launch Sierra’s Dream Chaser on its maiden voyage to the International Space Station, ULA and Sierra agreed to remove the payload because Sierra would not have Dream Chaser flight-ready this fall. Instead, ULA will fly an inert “dummy” to simulate a payload with the goal being to further prove out the Vulcan system and also to achieve certification from the Department of Defense for Vulcan to launch national defense payloads.

United Launch Alliance's Vulcan CERT-1 lifting off on January 8, 2024.
United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan CERT-1 lifting off on January 8, 2024. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

In its first launch, Vulcan performed admirably, launching Astrobiotics Peregrine lunar lander to its target orbit, with the lander then traveling to cislunar space.

Vulcan is the first rocket designed wholly by United Launch Alliance. The Delta and Atlas family of rockets were legacy designs created by Boeing and Lockheed Martin respectively prior to the founding of the company in 2006. ULA is a joint venture between the two aerospace giants, and has successfully launched more than 157 missions since its inception.

According to the company, “This second Certification (Cert-2) launch will demonstrate Vulcan’s high-energy rocket architecture by achieving an Earth-escape trajectory and placing the Centaur V with an inert, non-deployable payload into deep space where it will orbit the sun for the rest of time. Cert-2 follows Vulcan’s successful inaugural launch on Jan. 8, 2024.”

Vulcan CERT-2 will be externally identical to the CERT-1 vehicle: along with the methane-oxygen fueled first stage powered by two Blue Origin BE-4 engines (the same engine Blue Origin will use with New Glenn) the first stage will also have two GEM solid-rocket boosters attached to give it additional lifting power. Together, the methane-fueled main engines and SRBs will provide the 2 million pounds (8.9 kilo-Newtons) of thrust generated at liftoff to power Vulcan off the launch pad.

Mark Peller, ULA’s senior vice president, Vulcan Development and Advanced Programs said in a press release that, “After the key objectives necessary for certification are completed, the mission will evaluate additional changes to the design of the upper stage and how it is operated over long coast periods to further increase its endurance.”

In other words, ULA plans to first meet the requirements of DoD certification, and afterwards, work on iterative improvements on the new vehicle.

The United Launch Alliance Vulcan rocket is transported from the Vertical Integration Facility-G (VIF-G) to Space Launch Complex-41 at Cape Canaveral, Florida, in preparation for the second certification mission (Cert-2). Photo credit: United Launch Alliance
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Falcon 9 flying to space on September 29, 2024.
Falcon 9 flying to space on September 29, 2024.
Falcon 9 flying to space on September 29, 2024. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Overnight, SpaceX announced that it had experienced an anomaly with the Falcon 9 second stage used to launch Crew 9 on September 28, and that it was grounding the vehicle while it investigated the issue:

At the time of this writing, the Federal Administration Administration (FAA) has not commented on this matter, or whether it would formally withhold launch licensing from Falcon 9 while SpaceX completed its investigation.

Crew 9 Proceeding As Planned

Roscosmos Cosmonaut Alexsandr Gurbonov, left, and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague.
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

Notably, this incident occurred after Commander Nick Hague and Mission Specialist Alexsandr Gurbonov had separated from the second stage, and beforehand, the stage had provided a nominal orbital insertion for them aboard Crew Dragon and Crew 9. That mission continues with a planned docking at ISS sometime around 5:30 PM EDT today.

So What Happened?

SpaceX’s announcement was sparse on details, however the problem was explained well by Dr. Jonathon McDowell of the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

McDowell said X.com earlier this morning that the Falcon 9 second stage used yesterday did not deorbit as planned and probably came down east of New Zealand sometime overnight:

McDowell, who meticulously maintains a list of all launches and other space events, added on X.com, “The most likely failure mode that still results in reentry is a slight underburn (less delta-V, higher resulting perigee). If you underburn too much the perigee will be too high for reentry to occur. So you expect the entry to be further along the orange line but not by too much.”

He added in a successive post, “Here is the ground track showing the planned reentry area at bottom left. My analysis suggests that an off nominal deorbit that still ends up with stage reentry will impact on the orange line somewhere between the end of the white rectangle and the equator.”

The orbital ground track of Falcon 9’s second stage after the Crew 9 launch on September 28, 2024.
Graphic: Dr. Jonathan McDowell on X.com

Practical Effects

SpaceX is known to complete its investigations quickly, and if it is not restricted from launching by the FAA, one can expect them to investigate and remediate the problems with the Falcon 9 second stages with alacrity. The chances, however, of the FAA requiring a formal investigation and safety determination seems high if the immediate past is any guideline.

Crew 9 Stage 2 on September 29, 2024
Photo: SpaceX, via NASA Livestream

It is notable that this is the second major incident this year for a Falcon 9 second stage, with the first being on July 11th when a Starlink launch went awry due to a Merlin Vacuum engine failure. The FAA required SpaceX to make a public safety determination prior to returning to flight, a process that took fifteen days.

SpaceX also had a first stage landing failure in August, which resulted in the FAA requiring SpaceX to make a second public safety determination prior to launching again Falcon 9. That took only three days.

It’s unknown if yesterday’s issue and the one on July 11th are related in any way, and any conjecture that they are is just guesswork at this point. Short of SpaceX announcing that there is any relationship between the Jully 11 issue and the one this morning on September 29, no one knows one exists. That said, it is a second problem in 2024 with the second stage of the venerable Falcon 9.

The FAA has yet to make any public comments regarding today’s SpaceX announcement, but it would not be surprising if they were to formally require a new public safety determination for the incident SpaceX described this morning.

Practical Effects

SpaceX has multiple launches upcoming on its immediate manifest, including the Europa Clipper on Falcon Heavy, which is planned to fly NET October 10 from LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center. They also have the HERA mission scheduled for NET October 7, a mission for OneWeb NET October 1st and a few Starlink mission interspersed in between. As always, SpaceX is busy.

 technicians working to complete operations prior to propellant load for NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2024. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett
 technicians working to complete operations prior to propellant load for NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2024. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Those launch dates are reasonably in question as a result of the Crew 9 issue, as all are within a fifteen-day window of time, if using the July 2024 Falcon 9 second stage issue is any guideline.

None of that is set in stone, however, and this is a very fluid situation on Sunday, September 29th.

Stay tuned.

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Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

SpaceX successfully launched the Crew 9 mission today from Space Launch Complex 40 in the first crewed launch from that storied pad. Liftoff was at 01:17 PM EDT under broken skies and a building threat of storms.

Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

A little more than eight minutes later, spectators were treated to a second awesome view as Booster B1085 completed its second mission successfully when it touched down a Landing Zone 1, roughly six miles from where it launched. A sonic boom echoed across the Space Coast.

Booster B1085 beginning its landing sequence,

After achieving orbit, Crew Dragon separated from Falcon 9’s second stage and astronauts Aleksandr Gorbunov and “Nick” Hague began performing checkouts of propulsion, life support, and thermal control systems. Later, Dragon will perform “phasing burns” where the spacecraft performs dorbit raising maneuvers to catch up with the International Space Station.

If all proceeds as planned, Hague and Gorbunov will arrive at ISS on Sunday, Sept. 29, with docking planned for 5:30 PM EDT.

Launch Replay

Next Launch

After a lull in a steady stream of Starlink launches, SpaceX will return to building out its orbital ISP NET Wednesday from Cape Canaveral. The launch window opens at 4:50 AM EDT and extends to 8:50 AM the same day.

  • Date: NET October 2, 2024
  • Organization: SpaceX
  • Mission: Starlink 10-10
  • Rocket: Falcon 9
  • Launch Site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
  • Launch Window: 04:50 AM – 08:50 AM EDT
  • Payload: Starlink satellites
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On September 24, 1958, the first Polaris AX propulsion test vehicle was launched from Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 25. What happened next quickly became a part of local lore, with residents referring to the event for many years later as “The Banana River Ballistic Missile.”

Launch of The Banana River Missile

The Polaris rocket is a name familiar to many people of a certain age, as its existence was no secret and in fact, was widely discussed in serious circles as a major weapon in the Cold War.

Indeed, Polaris was a cornerstone of the United States’ nuclear deterrent in the Cold War era, and was deployed from 1960-1978 aboard US Navy submarines as the country’s first Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) system. Initially, it had a 1,400 mile range and could carry a single one-megaton nuclear weapon. It was built by Lockheed Corporation, and used Aerojet (now L3 Aerojet Rocketdyne) engines.

September 24, 1958 was the debut launch of the Polaris, and at the time, any missile launch from Cape Canaveral was big news and a local draw. Launches happened far less than today, and in the early days of rocketry, a lot less predictable than a typical launch from the Cape is now. In short, launches were spectacular, were in vogue and were must-see events if one found themselves in east-central Florida.

Heavy crowds had gathered in the Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach areas to watch the launch, and they were treated to quite a spectacle. The missile launched, rose about one half of a mile, then problems began as the first Polaris missile launched from the Cape failed due to wild spinning from what was later determined to be a programming error.

Once it was clear that the test flight was not going according to plan, the errant missile was issued a self-destruct order by the Range Safety Officer on duty. The problem is that the second stage survived self-destruction and came crashing down in the Banana River, just offshore from the town of Cape Canaveral in the Banana River, much to the shock of the local residents.

Unfortunately, few pictures of the launch, the crowds or the aftermath of the launch failure are available today, and the event is largely beyond local living memory as we lose that generation to aging. Newspapers of the time covered it quite well, all considered, and here’s the story as they told it immediately after it happened:

Reactions In 1958

Oddly — or perhaps not so oddly — the major local newspaper on the Space Coast, The Cocoa Tribune, half-heartedly covered the event:

Cocoa was the hub town in the immediate Cape Canaveral area at the time, and it had the largest paper in the region. Their article consisted of this:


Other newspapers in Florida were far more thorough:

Newspaper accounts of the incident quote one R. B. Brossier, a Cocoa Beach developer at time: “It looked like it was coming right toward me,” Brossier said in 1958. “[The missile] went straight up in a normal flight. Then, at about 2000 feet or so altitude it suddenly turned southwest toward Cocoa and the mainland.”

The September 25, 1958 edition of the Miami Herald got an account from one of their employees (not a reporter), John E. Corea. He described the launch saying, “There was a crowd on the beach to watch. Everyone panicked. Mothers with kids tried to get the children out of the way but no one knew where to go.”

Corea then said that “It was 12:20 when it took off. It went up, I’d say, about a mile, then burst and started screaming down.

“The pieces fell right in the middle of the Banana River about 200 yards offshore. It came close to a trailer park west of Cocoa Beach.”

Corea concluded his account by saying, “Then smoke and bubbles started boiling out of the middle of the river. It looked like a geyser out there.”

The Orlando Sentinel’s article described the missile’s crash by recounting a Mrs. Brett Carver, who said that the failed missile landed just offshore from The Hitching Post trailer park, where it crashed into shallow water. Carver told reporters that the crashing Polaris second stage ‘flung a terrific mass of mud possibly as much as 1,000 feet skyward as the burning missile seemed to blow as it hit went under.’

Carver then added, “That’s when Bert and I started running towards our house. It threw debris up on shore. You could see quite a mass of debris in the water at first as it steamed and spewed after exploding and then it seemed to settle out of sight. That’s getting too close for me!”

Reporters at the time commented that the sight of the falling Polaris was visible as far away as Rockledge, some twelve miles southwest of Cape Canaveral. They also commented that no flames were visible from that far, which makes sense considering that only people nearby the crash scene reported seeing any fire.

Aftermath

While undoubtedly the US Air Force, associated contractors and perhaps even local officials gathered together to piece together what happened that day, there were no high-profile investigations reported in the months after the event.

Cocoa’s newspaper — which had barely mentioned the incident in its pages in the days after the event, had a few quips in the following months from local columnists who made light of the misfire, calling it “The Banana River Ballistic Missile.” The name stuck.

Life in Cape Canaveral and surrounding towns went back to normal quickly after the event, but for decades afterwards, local lore kept a place for the Banana River Ballistic Missile, even if the exact story of what happened the day it was launched was largely forgotten.

Today

This reporter inquired at the Sands Museum if anyone there had any memories of the Banana River Ballistic Missile event, but unfortunately no one could be found to give Talk of Titusville a first-person retelling of the event. That’s no surprise, given that it happened over sixty years ago.

Visiting the site of the missile crash reveals no sign of the event’s occurrence, again, no surprise given the number of years that have passed. Looking at the crash site is hardly different than any other view of the Banana River in Cape Canaveral: quiet, beautiful and a nice place to fish or go boating but otherwise wholly unremarkable, save for the occasional dolphin surfacing or perhaps the water glowing on a summer night from natural bioluminescence.

The Hitching Post trailer park is still there, albeit with a different name, “Sea Shells.” Sea Shells is a quiet neighborhood tucked off of bustling A1A, across the street from Cape Canaveral’s City Hall. One of the streets in this neighborhood still bears the name “Hitching Post” and for all intents and purposes, it appears that little has changed at the location save for the homes present on the lots.

Could It Happen Again?

In a word, no. Today, such an event as the Banana River Ballistic Missile is highly unlikely in the extreme.

Compared to the 1950’s, safety requirements are far more stringent, and a launch trajectory that would allow a missile to land anywhere near a populated area is simply not allowed. If anything, “safe” trajectories are far more conservative than they were sixty-odd years ago.

Secondly, self-destruct systems on rockets are far more advanced than they were sixty-six years ago, and new rockets have automated systems that destroy a rocket when it deviates from the planned flight path far more thoroughly than in the old days.

In short, this was a one-off event and while it is an almost humorous bit of space history as seen through the lens of today, it almost certainly was something that was taken very seriously at the time and immediate improvements to safety systems was a short-term and a long-term result.

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Aleksandr Vladimirovich Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague greeted reporters and @NASA personnel yesterday at the old Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC. They launch NET Thursday 2:06 PM EDT.
Aleksandr Vladimirovich Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague greeted reporters and @NASA personnel yesterday at the old Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC. They launch NET Thursday 2:06 PM EDT.
Aleksandr Vladimirovich Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague greeted reporters and @NASA personnel yesterday at the old Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC. They launch NET Thursday 2:06 PM EDT. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville

NASA has announced that the SpaceX Crew 9 mission would not launch until Saturday due to potential effects from tropical storm Helene.

NASA and SpaceX teams have adjusted the next launch opportunity for NASA’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission to no earlier than 1:17 p.m. EDT, Saturday, Sept. 28, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida due to expected tropical storm conditions in the area. The change allows teams to complete a rehearsal of launch day activities Tuesday night with the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket, which rolled to Space Launch Complex-40 earlier in the day. Following rehearsal activities, the integrated system will move back to the hangar ahead of any potential storm activity.

Although Tropical Storm Helene is moving through the Gulf of Mexico and expected to impact the Florida panhandle, the storm system is large enough that high winds and heavy rain are expected in the Cape Canaveral and Merritt Island regions on Florida’s east coast.

NASA, SpaceX Shift Crew-9 Launch to NET Sept. 28 Over Weather Concerns

NASA’s reasoning is sound, according to the official forecast for Helene today, on September 24th:

Current Forecasts

The Tuesday September 24th PM forecast for Helene.
Source: TROPICAL STORM HELENE, Retrieved 09/24/2024.
Note: refer to official sources (NOAA, NHC, etc. for the current forecast!

The Space Coast is currently under a Tropical Storm watch, and effects from Helene are expected before and during the Thursday launch window. That’s not good for pre-launch preparations and not very likely to result in a clean range weather-wise Thursday afternoon.

OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION:
TROPICAL STORM HELENE

A Far-Away Look Ahead To The Weekend

NASA has identified Saturday at 1:17 p.m. EDT in an instantaneous window as the next possible launch date for Crew 9. The current National Weather Service forecast for Cape Canaveral calls for “a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”

The 45th Weather Squadron will issue its official Probability of Violation forecast later this week if the September 28th attempt remains on schedule.

Stay tuned.

SpaceX’s Crew 9 logo. NASA uses a different one.
Graphic: SpaceX
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New Glenn second stage during static firing on September 23, 2024 in Cape Canaveral.
Dave Limp, CEO of Blue Origin, provided this view of yesterday’s second-stage static fire.
Photo: Blue Origin / Dave Limp via X.com

Blue Origin has achieved another milestone yesterday in their ramp-up to the maiden launch of their first orbital rocket when they static-fired the second stage of New Glenn for around fifteen seconds at SLC-36 at Cape Canaveral on September 23rd.

Note: Blue Origin refers to the second-stage of the vehicle as GS2.

According to Dave Limp, CEO of Blue Origin, “GS2 is one of the largest and most capable upper stages ever developed with a propellant load comparable to a Delta IV booster. The two BE-3Us have a maximum thrust of up to 346,000 lbf (173,000 lbf per engine), which is the equivalent thrust of a dozen F-16 jets.”

That’s a lot of power, but it is only the launch vehicle’s second stage. The first stage of New Glenn produces 3,850,000 lbf of thrust, roughly half of a Saturn V. Whether there will be a full static fire of the booster has not been announced.

According to Blue Origin, New Glenn is slated to fly in November from Cape Canaveral.

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