Crew-8 aboard Crew Dragon arriving at ISS on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Photo: NASA
NASA has announced that they are scheduling Crew-8 from the International Space Station today so that the four astronauts comprising the crew can begin their return to Earth:
NASA and SpaceX now are targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, Oct. 23, for the agency’s Crew-8 mission to depart from the International Space Station aboard SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft. An undocking on Wednesday would result in a splashdown on Friday, Oct. 25.
Forecasters have seen improvement in expected weather at some of the landing sites off the coast of Florida and continue to monitor conditions while considering splashdown sites and exact timing.
The agency added that there is another weather briefing this morning. The specific splashdown location has not been announced, but will either be in Florida’s waters in the Gulf of Mexico or off of the eastern Florida coast.
The last two weeks of weather have not been very kind to spaceflight schedules here in Florida, with hurricane-related or wind-related launch scrubs, and delays in the return of Crew-8 from ISS. Last month, the Polaris Dawn crew’s return was delayed due to weather as well.
Fortunately, forecasts seem to be turning in favor of launches and landings. The 45th Weather Squadron of Space Launch Delta 45 reported in their launch forecast for Starlink 6-61 (also scheduled for Wednesday, October 23) that “Launch conditions improve for Thursday as [a hgh pressure] ridge builds over the Florida peninsula, relaxing wind speeds and ushering in even drier air. Weather will be very favorable with a negligible risk of any weather violations [for launching.]” Presumably the calmer skies will also be of benefit to Crew-8’s astronauts.
NASA’s Commercial Crew office released its high-level plan for 2025 today. It has few surprises, with two SpaceX Commercial Crew missions, and offers the slightest of updates for Boeing’s Starliner program and holds out the possibility of a Starliner flight next year.
SpaceX Commercial Crew Flights in 2025
Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Crew-10 NASA’s SpaceX Crew-10 mission is scheduled for February 2025.
NASA Astronaut Anne McClain will be the mission commander, NASA Astronaut Nichole Ayers will be the pilot mission specialists JAXA astronaut Takuya Onishi and Roscosmos cosmonaut Kirill Peskov will be the mission specialists. This mission will be the second spaceflight for McClain and Onishi, and the first for Ayers and Peskov.
Crew-11 NASA’s SpaceX Crew-11 is targeted for no earlier than July of next year, but that may be adjusted because of operational needs — resupply missions on docking ports, etc. NASA will announce the four-person crew at a later date.
There is speculation that the two members of Crew-9 who were taken off the flight to accommodate Boeing Starliner Crewed Flight Test astronauts will be assigned to this flight, but at this point in time, that is just rumor and has no basis in official facts released by the agency.
Stephanie Wilson and Zena Cardman were deep into the training cycle for the Crew-9, which presumably gives them a headstart. Still, ultimately, Chief of the Astronaut Office Joe Acaba and other NASA officials will make the call. When that information will be released to the public is unknown.
Boeing Starliner
Starliner CST-100 in launch preparation, May 31, 2024
Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Here is where today’s release gets really interesting: NASA says that, “The timing and configuration of Starliner’s next flight will be determined once a better understanding of Boeing’s path to system certification is established. This determination will include considerations for incorporating Crew Flight Test lessons learned, approvals of final certification products, and operational readiness.”
“Meanwhile, NASA is keeping options on the table for how best to achieve system certification, including windows of opportunity for a potential Starliner flight in 2025.”
To fly in 2025, Boeing and its contractors will need to fix the issues that dogged the Crewed Flight Test this year, namely overheating thrusters, helium leaks, and potentially degraded seals (this was seen in ground testing during the investigations of Starliner CFT).
To do that, Boeing and NASA engineers must finalize their data analyses if they still need to do so. From there, Boeing and its subcontractors can begin designing and fabricating any hardware changes and qualifying those for human spaceflight. Externally, Boeing seems optimistic that they can do those things in 2025. Whether that happens remains to be seen, given that aerospace projects are often delayed.
Falcon 9 flying to space on September 29, 2024. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Overnight, SpaceX announced that it had experienced an anomaly with the Falcon 9 second stage used to launch Crew 9 on September 28, and that it was grounding the vehicle while it investigated the issue:
At the time of this writing, the Federal Administration Administration (FAA) has not commented on this matter, or whether it would formally withhold launch licensing from Falcon 9 while SpaceX completed its investigation.
Crew 9 Proceeding As Planned
Roscosmos Cosmonaut Alexsandr Gurbonov, left, and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Notably, this incident occurred after Commander Nick Hague and Mission Specialist Alexsandr Gurbonov had separated from the second stage, and beforehand, the stage had provided a nominal orbital insertion for them aboard Crew Dragon and Crew 9. That mission continues with a planned docking at ISS sometime around 5:30 PM EDT today.
So What Happened?
SpaceX’s announcement was sparse on details, however the problem was explained well by Dr. Jonathon McDowell of the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
McDowell said X.com earlier this morning that the Falcon 9 second stage used yesterday did not deorbit as planned and probably came down east of New Zealand sometime overnight:
So where did the Crew-9 second stage come down? Here is the ground track of Crew-9 based on the TLE (orange) and the planned stage 2 deorbit area (white rectangle) pic.twitter.com/gBFlY2f9dJ
McDowell, who meticulously maintains a list of all launches and other space events, added on X.com, “The most likely failure mode that still results in reentry is a slight underburn (less delta-V, higher resulting perigee). If you underburn too much the perigee will be too high for reentry to occur. So you expect the entry to be further along the orange line but not by too much.”
He added in a successive post, “Here is the ground track showing the planned reentry area at bottom left. My analysis suggests that an off nominal deorbit that still ends up with stage reentry will impact on the orange line somewhere between the end of the white rectangle and the equator.”
The orbital ground track of Falcon 9’s second stage after the Crew 9 launch on September 28, 2024. Graphic: Dr. Jonathan McDowell on X.com
Practical Effects
SpaceX is known to complete its investigations quickly, and if it is not restricted from launching by the FAA, one can expect them to investigate and remediate the problems with the Falcon 9 second stages with alacrity. The chances, however, of the FAA requiring a formal investigation and safety determination seems high if the immediate past is any guideline.
Crew 9 Stage 2 on September 29, 2024 Photo: SpaceX, via NASA Livestream
It’s unknown if yesterday’s issue and the one on July 11th are related in any way, and any conjecture that they are is just guesswork at this point. Short of SpaceX announcing that there is any relationship between the Jully 11 issue and the one this morning on September 29, no one knows one exists. That said, it is a second problem in 2024 with the second stage of the venerable Falcon 9.
The FAA has yet to make any public comments regarding today’s SpaceX announcement, but it would not be surprising if they were to formally require a new public safety determination for the incident SpaceX described this morning.
Practical Effects
SpaceX has multiple launches upcoming on its immediate manifest, including the Europa Clipper on Falcon Heavy, which is planned to fly NET October 10 from LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center. They also have the HERA mission scheduled for NET October 7, a mission for OneWeb NET October 1st and a few Starlink mission interspersed in between. As always, SpaceX is busy.
technicians working to complete operations prior to propellant load for NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2024. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett
Those launch dates are reasonably in question as a result of the Crew 9 issue, as all are within a fifteen-day window of time, if using the July 2024 Falcon 9 second stage issue is any guideline.
None of that is set in stone, however, and this is a very fluid situation on Sunday, September 29th.
SpaceX successfully launched the Crew 9 mission Saturday, November 28, 2024 from Space Launch Complex 40 in the first crewed launch from that storied pad. Liftoff was at 01:17 PM EDT under broken skies and a building threat of storms.
Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
SpaceX successfully launched the Crew 9 mission today from Space Launch Complex 40 in the first crewed launch from that storied pad. Liftoff was at 01:17 PM EDT under broken skies and a building threat of storms.
Crew 9 lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 on September 28, 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
A little more than eight minutes later, spectators were treated to a second awesome view as Booster B1085 completed its second mission successfully when it touched down a Landing Zone 1, roughly six miles from where it launched. A sonic boom echoed across the Space Coast.
Booster B1085 beginning its landing sequence,
After achieving orbit, Crew Dragon separated from Falcon 9’s second stage and astronauts Aleksandr Gorbunov and “Nick” Hague began performing checkouts of propulsion, life support, and thermal control systems. Later, Dragon will perform “phasing burns” where the spacecraft performs dorbit raising maneuvers to catch up with the International Space Station.
If all proceeds as planned, Hague and Gorbunov will arrive at ISS on Sunday, Sept. 29, with docking planned for 5:30 PM EDT.
Launch Replay
Next Launch
After a lull in a steady stream of Starlink launches, SpaceX will return to building out its orbital ISP NET Wednesday from Cape Canaveral. The launch window opens at 4:50 AM EDT and extends to 8:50 AM the same day.
Date: NET October 2, 2024
Organization: SpaceX
Mission: Starlink 10-10
Rocket: Falcon 9
Launch Site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
Aleksandr Vladimirovich Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague greeted reporters and @NASA personnel yesterday at the old Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC. They launch NET Thursday 2:06 PM EDT. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
NASA has announced that the SpaceX Crew 9 mission would not launch until Saturday due to potential effects from tropical storm Helene.
NASA and SpaceX teams have adjusted the next launch opportunity for NASA’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission to no earlier than 1:17 p.m. EDT, Saturday, Sept. 28, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida due to expected tropical storm conditions in the area. The change allows teams to complete a rehearsal of launch day activities Tuesday night with the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket, which rolled to Space Launch Complex-40 earlier in the day. Following rehearsal activities, the integrated system will move back to the hangar ahead of any potential storm activity.
Although Tropical Storm Helene is moving through the Gulf of Mexico and expected to impact the Florida panhandle, the storm system is large enough that high winds and heavy rain are expected in the Cape Canaveral and Merritt Island regions on Florida’s east coast.
NASA’s reasoning is sound, according to the official forecast for Helene today, on September 24th:
Current Forecasts
The Tuesday September 24th PM forecast for Helene. Source: TROPICAL STORM HELENE, Retrieved 09/24/2024. Note: refer to official sources (NOAA, NHC, etc. for the current forecast!
The Space Coast is currently under a Tropical Storm watch, and effects from Helene are expected before and during the Thursday launch window. That’s not good for pre-launch preparations and not very likely to result in a clean range weather-wise Thursday afternoon.
NASA has identified Saturday at 1:17 p.m. EDT in an instantaneous window as the next possible launch date for Crew 9. The current National Weather Service forecast for Cape Canaveral calls for “a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”
The 45th Weather Squadron will issue its official Probability of Violation forecast later this week if the September 28th attempt remains on schedule.
Stay tuned.
SpaceX’s Crew 9 logo. NASA uses a different one. Graphic: SpaceX
Crew 9 Astronauts Aleksandr Vladimirovich Gorbunov and Nick Hague greeted reporters and NASA personnel yesterday at the old Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
The NASA/SpaceX Crew 9 astronauts have arrived at Kennedy Space Center.
Crew 9 Final Preparations Set To Begin.
After landing on a chartered Gulfstream G-550 flight from Houston, the crew will begin final preparations for their upcoming flight aboard a Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon to the International Space Station, slated to launch no earlier than Thursday, September 26th, at 02:05 PM EDT.
They were greeted by Kelvin Manning, deputy director, NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, and Dana Hutcherson, deputy program manager, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program as well as a large contingent of reporters.
After answering questions from the press, Hague and Gorbunov left to enter quarantine at the Neil A. Armstrong Operations and Checkout Building at KSC. They will also complete a dry dress rehearsal of the mission, will align their resting and waking periods to match mission requirements and will also practive other launch and free-flight procedures that will be needed during the early part of their mission.
Aleksandr Vladimirovich Gorbunov and NASA Astronaut Nick Hague greeted reporters and @NASA personnel yesterday at the old Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC. They launch NET Thursday 2:06 PM EDT. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Dana Hutcherson gave more information on pre-launch preparations, “Our teams will also gather on Monday for the flight readiness review ahead of the launch. This launch will mark the first time a human spaceflight mission will lift off from Space Launch Complex 40, and our NASA and SpaceX teams have been working hand in hand with our Space Force mission partners. This is a huge increase in capability for us. With two pads now rated for human spaceflight, we now have operational flexibility with SpaceX to deconflict launches at both 39 A and SLC 40.”
An uncrewed Falcon 9 launching from Space Launch Complex 40. The site has seen over 250 launches through the years, but never a crewed flight. That will change as soon as this week. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
Integration Of Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams Into Crew 9
Due to issues with the Boeing Crewed Flight test and the subsequent shift of CFT astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to Expedition 72 and Crew 9, the two astronauts who flew to ISS aboard Starliner will be returning to Earth aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon — a spacecraft neither of the two have previous flight experience with.
This reporter asked Crew 9 Commander Nick Hague when the integration of the two members would start:
Nick Hague comments on integrating the two Crew 9 astronauts already on Crew 9 Video via NASA liverstream. Members of the press waiting for Crew-9s arrival. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of TitusvilleThe crew and support personnel arriving at KSC’s SLF on September 22, 2024 aboard a Gulfstream G-550 charter flight. Photo: Charles Boyer / Talk of Titusville
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