Crew-8 aboard Crew Dragon arriving at ISS on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Photo: NASA
NASA has announced that they are scheduling Crew-8 from the International Space Station today so that the four astronauts comprising the crew can begin their return to Earth:
NASA and SpaceX now are targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, Oct. 23, for the agency’s Crew-8 mission to depart from the International Space Station aboard SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft. An undocking on Wednesday would result in a splashdown on Friday, Oct. 25.
Forecasters have seen improvement in expected weather at some of the landing sites off the coast of Florida and continue to monitor conditions while considering splashdown sites and exact timing.
The agency added that there is another weather briefing this morning. The specific splashdown location has not been announced, but will either be in Florida’s waters in the Gulf of Mexico or off of the eastern Florida coast.
The last two weeks of weather have not been very kind to spaceflight schedules here in Florida, with hurricane-related or wind-related launch scrubs, and delays in the return of Crew-8 from ISS. Last month, the Polaris Dawn crew’s return was delayed due to weather as well.
Fortunately, forecasts seem to be turning in favor of launches and landings. The 45th Weather Squadron of Space Launch Delta 45 reported in their launch forecast for Starlink 6-61 (also scheduled for Wednesday, October 23) that “Launch conditions improve for Thursday as [a hgh pressure] ridge builds over the Florida peninsula, relaxing wind speeds and ushering in even drier air. Weather will be very favorable with a negligible risk of any weather violations [for launching.]” Presumably the calmer skies will also be of benefit to Crew-8’s astronauts.
“Weather conditions near the multiple splashdown sites off Florida’s coast remain unfavorable for the return of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-8 mission from the International Space Station. Forecasts remain marginal for an undocking on Tuesday, Oct. 22, and Wednesday, Oct. 23. If weather conditions improve, NASA and SpaceX will target no earlier than 9:05 p.m. EDT, Oct. 22, for undocking from the space station. Based on the current forecast, conditions are expected to improve as the week progresses.”
NASA, October 21, 2024
Originally scheduled to return to Earth on October 7, Crew 8’s Dragon capsule Endeavour was slated to undock from the International Space Station (ISS) on October 13. However, poor weather in potential recovery zones postponed that departure, and for the past two weeks, the crew has been awaiting better conditions.
Seas have been 6-8 feet through this period, which has seen a hurricane pass through the region and a strong front boundary afterward, stirring up strong winds and choppy seas. Small Craft Advisories have been an almost standard feature for the Florida coastline during the period, and so far, those conditions have shown little sign of relenting. NASA managers are meeting again tomorrow to discuss the weather outlook, according to the Commercial Crew office.
The forecast for the coastal waters of Florida are not encouraging, at least in the early part of the week:
East Coast of Florida: High pressure is forecast to remain over the eastern U.S. through mid-week, resulting in a prolonged period of moderate to fresh east northeast winds. The long fetch of winds over the Atlantic will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions into late week. Isolated, onshore-moving showers will remain possible into Friday.
Gulf of Mexico: Cautionary conditions remain across all Gulf waters today. Those conditions will persist in the offshore waters tonight while northeast winds begin a slow decrease in the nearshore waters. By Tuesday, winds throughout the northeast Gulf waters will relax to more moderate levels heading into midweek with seas falling to 1-2 feet.
SpaceX Falcon 9 lifts off of LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center at 10:53 PM EST on March 3, 2024 Photo: Charles Boyer / ToT
It’s often said that the third time is the charm. For Crew 8 commander Matthew Dominick, co-pilot Michael Barratt, Jeanette Epps, and cosmonaut Alexander Grebenkin, the third launch attempt was the one that lifted them off of Pad LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center late Sunday evening.
A few hours before liftoff, the astronauts of Crew-8 greeted friends and family as they left from the Neil Armstrong Operations and Checkout Building on their way to the launch pad. Photo: Charles Boyer / ToT
Twice in previous days, adverse weather had forced mission managers to call off a launch attempt: first, on Friday due to high winds and rough seas beneath the planned ascent corridor. On Saturday, conditions hadn’t improved for a launch attempt, but by late Sunday they were acceptable and the Crew-8 liftoff and journey to the International Space Station was cleared to proceed. The reason for the weather aborts was simple, if a little counterintuitive to the average person: in the case of a launch abort, the crew would have into seas as high as 20 feet in the Atlantic.
Late Countdown Concerns
After a seemingly uneventful countdown that allowed the astronauts and ground crew to get ahead of schedule, late concerns were raised about a crack in the hatch seal of Crew Dragon Endeavour that was discovered after it was sealed. According to SpaceX and NASA commentators, there were concerns that the crack could cause an atmospheric leak during re-entry, which of course would be unacceptable and potentially cause a scrub to facilitate repairs.
With Falcon 9 being loaded with propellants and the countdown clock inexorably ticking down to zero, engineers responsible for this aspect of the spacecraft were consulted, and with ten minutes left in the count, the astronauts were informed by ground control that the crack was too small to pose a threat. Engineers also stated that the crack would seal itself during re-entry heating, was on the “side” of Crew Dragon as it was re-entering, and would not be a problem. The countdown was cleared to continue.
Liftoff at 10:53 PM
An “Aurora” after stage separation during Crew-8’s ascent on March 3. 2024. Photo: Charles Boyer / ToT
A brand-new booster to the Falcon 9 fleet, B1083, fired up at 10:53 PM EST, sending the crew to orbit and ultimately to the International Space Station. Endeavour will dock autonomously to the forward port of the station’s Harmony module about 3 a.m. Tuesday, March 5.
After staging, the return booster put on an incredible display over the Florida coastline, first, as it began its RTLS (Return To Launch Site) maneuvers then later during its re-entry burn — all of which was visible to spectators from near the launch pad at Kennedy Space Center. Some eight and a half minutes after liftoff, Booster B1083 concluded its first mission with a pair of sonic booms after it touched down, followed by the roar of the landing burn.
On to Station
Crew-8 will now catch up with the International Space Station, and autonomous dock is planned for the forward port of the station’s Harmony module about 3 a.m. Tuesday, March 5. After settling in to ISS, Crew-8 will begin a six month assignment on Station to begin a slate of more than 200 science experiments and technology demonstrations that will take place during their mission.
Crew-8 Members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-8 from left to right, NASA astronauts Jeanette Epps, mission specialist; Michael Barratt, pilot; Matthew Dominick, commander; and Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexander Grebenkin, mission specialist; are photographed inside the crew access arm at Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Photo: SpaceX
NASA announced this morning that “due to unfavorable weather conditions forecast in offshore areas along the flight track, NASA and SpaceX now are targeting Saturday, March 2 at 11:15 p.m. EST for Crew-8 launch.”
Weather here on the Space Coast appears to be acceptable for a launch, and it appears that forecasters have scaled back their rain estimates for the area — down from 40% chances of precipitation overnight to as little as 15%. Unfortunately, the forecasts aren’t as good along the launch corridor, and in the unlikely case of a launch abort, the crew would be descending into unacceptable conditions.
Illustration of forecasted high-altitude winds in the launch corridor of Crew-8 tonight at 12 AM EST. While these are merely estimates, they do illustrate the conditions that the astronauts could face during an abort event. The trajectory of Falcon 9 towards ISS is the yellow line. Forecast: Windy.com
NASA’s Manager of Commercial Crew, Steve Stich, outlined this in a press conference at Kennedy Space Center yesterday. “It’s one of the more complicated times during ascent relative to how we do abort weather,” he said. “We basically have a number of points all across the ascent ground track from the launch pad all the way to orbit insertion. And for each one of those points, we look at a weighted risk.”
Stich also said that “At staging, we look at that location because if you think about all the events that have to happen at staging, when the first stage, the nine Merlin engines shut down, there’s separation and the MVAC engine has to start.”
Should that second stage engine fail to ignite properly, the crew would be in an abort mode and down into weather that NASA and SpaceX officials have deemed too risky to attempt a launch at the original planned liftoff time. Conditions are expected over to improve over the next couple of days as the frontal boundary pushes south.
Saturday’s Weather: Iffy.
Saturday may well end up as a repeat of today: weather will likely still be a concern, and a scrub may be necessitated according to today’s forecast by the US Space Force’s 45th Weather Squadron:
While weather here on the Space Coast looks as though it will have a 90% chance of acceptable launch conditions early Friday morning for a 12:04 AM EST launch of astronauts Matthew Dominick, Michael Barratt, and Jeanette Epps and Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexander Grebenkin to the International Space Station, NASA officials raised concerns that weather along the watch corridor may not be acceptable.
In a pre-flight press conference this morning at the Kennedy Space Center Press Site, Steve Stich, NASA’s Manager for the Commercial Crew Program said, “Launch weather looks really favorable for Friday morning’s early launch. I would say the abort weather is what we’re watching very carefully.”
45th Weather Squadron Forecast
The 45th Weather Squadron released their first launch forecast for Crew-8 at 12:00 PM EST today:
Steve Stich, NASA’s Manager for the Commercial Crew Program at today’s Crew-8 Press Conference. via: NASA Livestream
Additional Stich Comments At Today’s Press Conference
“We have to have weather along the east coast ground track to be acceptable for launch,” Stich added. “That weather right now is not looking as favorable as we’d like. We’ll do another weather briefing tonight and then we’ll take a look at the weather again.”
He added later that the weather forecast is in the marginal column, but not yet in the zone that would necessitate a scrub out of an abundance of caution. “I would say it’s marginal right now based on the forecast,” Stich said. “We’ll go look at the weather tonight and make a decision. Do we push the launch 24 hours at that point, or do we take it down further? And that’s really going to be based on the weather models and the prediction of this trough. And then sometimes we’ll take it all the way down to the day of launch, and we just have to look at the data a little bit more.”
Why Is Launch Corridor Weather A Critical Concern?
In the relatively unlikely event of a launch abort, NASA and SpaceX want to ensure that conditions for an unplanned splashdown of the crew at sea are safe.
Stich illustrated this with some in-depth comments: “At staging, we look at that location because if you think about all the events that have to happen at staging, when the first stage, the nine Merlin engines shut down, there’s separation and the MVAC engine has to start.”
“It’s one of the more complicated times during ascent relative to how we do abort weather, we basically have a number of points all across the ascent ground track from the launch pad all the way to orbit insertion. And for each one of those points, we look at a weighted risk,” Stich said.
Should that second-stage engine ignition fail to occur, an abort would be necessary. Again, this unlikely, but bad weather is an unacceptable risk for astronauts descending from a far-from-nominal state in their spaceflight.
Not Scrubbed, Not Yet, Stay Tuned
To be clear, at the time of this writing, 1:00 PM EST on Wednesday, the mission has not been delayed. That decision will be made later, so stay tuned.
Crew-8: (L-R) Cosmonaut Alexander Grebenken, Astronauts Michael Barratt, Matthew Dominick, and Jeanette Epps on the tarmac at KSC’s Launch and Landing Facility on February 25, 2024. Photo: Charles Boyer, Talk of Titusville
On Friday at 12:04 AM EST, NASA astronauts Matthew Dominick, Michael Barratt, and Jeanette Epps, along with one Roscosmos cosmonaut, Alexander Grebenkin, are scheduled to launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 with Crew Dragon and head towards the International Space Station. The crew arrived at Kennedy Space Center yesterday to begin their final preparations for the launch on March 1st.
Later in the day, mission managers and engineers conducted a Flight Readiness Review for the mission, where they assessed the rocket’s readiness, the crew and several other critical factors to approve the mission start.
Crew Arrival
Early in the afternoon, the crew arrived at the Launch and Landing Facility (LLF) at Kennedy Space Center, where they gave brief remarks to the press before leaving for other duties.
Mission Commander Matthew Dominick
Dominick, a former US Navy test pilot and a NASA astronaut since 2017 remarked that it is an “incredible time for spaceflight,” where launch activities at Kennedy Space Center and the Eastern Range happen so often that Crew-8 was slightly delayed to accommodate other missions:
Crew-8 Mission Commander Matthew Dominick’s gave remarks after he arrived at Kennedy Space Center.
Mission Pilot Sr. Michael Barratt
Dr. Barratt is an experienced and well-seasoned astronaut, having flown twice on Soyuz, and once on the Space Shuttle before he became a member of Crew-8. He has been extensively involved in medical and human factors applications for new space vehicles in the Commercial Crew and Artemis Programs, space medical risks, and research efforts. He began working at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in May 1991.
Barratt remarked that Kennedy Space Center has rebounded greatly since the end of the Shuttle program, and that today it is an incredibly busy place:
Mission Specialist Dr. Jeanette Epps
Dr. Epps, who has been with NASA since 2009, remarked on the long road to the launch pad and how she was trained on Russian, Boeing, and SpaceX flight systems. She holds a Ph.D. in Aerospace Engineering from the University of Maryland and is a well-respected and oft-cited researcher in her field and an astronaut.
In her remarks, she thanked everyone who participated in getting the mission to launch readiness.
Dr. Jeanette Epps speaks on February 25, 2024 after she arrived at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
Rusian Cosmonaut Alexander Grebenken
Grebenken, has served in the technical and operational units of the Air Force of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Armed Forces and has been a member of the Russian cosmonaut corps since 2018, first as a cosmonaut candidate, and in 2020 he was awarded the qualification of a test cosmonaut. He spoke through an interpreter during his brief remarks.
Alexander Grebenken on February 25, 2024 after he arrived at Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
Flight Readiness Review
Also yesterday, a Flight Readiness Review for Crew-8 was conducted by mission managers at NASA and SpaceX to assess whether the mission was ready to proceed with the launch as planned on Friday.
Ken Bowersox, Associate Administrator of the Space Operations Mission Directorate at NASA said, “We talked about some of the technical items, on the Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft, the readiness of the crew, and the Space Station and even some of the science the crew will conduct.”
Bowersox said results were positive: “At the end of the review, everybody polled ‘Go’ and we’re on track for a launch at 12:04 EST on Friday March 1st from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center.”
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